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Even utilizing extra optimistic forecasts of financial progress than these utilized by forecasters within the personal sector, the researchers mentioned it was “not possible” to discover a state of affairs through which the funds was balanced with out decreasing progress in bills to about 2.5 per cent or growing the tax burden by $1.three billion as of 2022-23.
The projections, primarily based on an inflation-adjusted gross home product progress of 1.5 per cent in the long run — decrease than the 2 per cent forecast of the Legault authorities — would require 9 years to succeed in a stability.
“It’s not stunning,” Godbout mentioned in an interview. “If we have a look at the final recession in 2008, the federal government needed to act to get again (to zero deficit).”
The calculations are made in accordance with Quebec’s balanced funds regulation, which calculates surpluses and deficits after contributions to the Generations Fund, which is supposed to cut back the federal government’s debt. Final week, Finance Minister Eric Girard mentioned he needed to contemplate altering that calculation and counting such contributions as surplus.