New analysis suggests “flattening the curve” is probably not the simplest strategy to battle the COVID-19 pandemic.
A crew of worldwide researchers, led by Peking College Professor Liu Yu, have projected that the “flatten the curve” strategy may destroy economies whereas having not sufficient of an impact on chopping infections.
“The turning level won’t ever come, the height worth of case numbers will stay the identical as if there aren’t any such measures,” the crew mentioned in a non-peer-reviewed paper launched final week. “We strongly counsel they rethink.”
WHAT DOES THE RESEARCH SAY?
“Flattening the curve” refers to shutting down non-essential companies and issuing social distancing measures to make sure that a rustic’s well being system can deal with the variety of infections and deaths.
The analysis, first reported on by the South China Morning Post, checked out every day infections, the geographical unfold of the illness, financial output and public transport to evaluate the effectiveness of social restriction insurance policies on flattening the curve.
They discovered that only some international locations, together with South Korea, Qatar, Norway and New Zealand, have been in a position to cease the unfold with minimal disruption to the economic system.
Others, like the USA, Britain, France, Italy and Spain, have suffered main blows to their economies whereas additionally combating hovering infections and dying charges.
They discovered that China’s “elimination” technique was best at suppressing the virus, however was unsustainable resulting from its heavy impression on the economic system.
In different phrases, “flattening the curve” produces too little however prices an excessive amount of.
The researchers advised that the disruption to the economic system and social life didn’t align with the discount in instances.
“This alternative nonetheless incurs 20-60 per cent lack of financial output, however solely achieves a 30-40 per cent discount within the variety of instances, an extent which is inadequate to overturn the epidemic curve,” the researchers mentioned. “Our outcomes present that that is often the worst state of affairs by way of cost-effectiveness.”
However the foundation of the analysis has been questioned. Jaymie Meliker, professor of public well being with the Stony Brook College in New York, mentioned the analysis did not put a worth on every life misplaced to COVID-19.
“I couldn’t discover how a lot they estimate a life is price of their price profit mannequin,” he instructed the SCMP.
“If the hospitals are overrun and extra persons are dying due to that, then we have to quantify that price for a cost-benefit mannequin.
“That’s wanted for us to have the ability to consider the professionals and cons of the totally different containment methods.”
SO DOES THAT MEAN WE SHOULD LIFT THE VIRUS RESTRICTIONS?
Briefly, no it doesn’t.
Australia’s response to COVID-19 is proof that social distancing measures do work. The latter half of March noticed virus instances improve greater than ten-fold, from 376 instances on March 16 to over 4500 by the tip of that month. Social distancing guidelines got here into impact on March 21, and the case fee has been declining because the starting of April.
On April 22, Australia recorded simply 4 instances nationally, with a number of states recording zero new instances.
The researchers acknowledged that merely eradicating social restrictions, as US President Donald Trump has advised, can be a harmful strategy to go.
They warned stress-free lockdown measures with out ramping up an infection management capability may show disastrous and see international locations’ dying tolls skyrocket.
The answer, they mentioned, is to solely calm down lockdowns whereas quickly growing testing and affected person isolation.
The excellent news is that that is just like Australia’s subsequent transfer.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison has repeatedly pressured there are three standards factors that have to be met earlier than our social restrictions might be lifted: elevated testing, contact tracing and better potential to reply to native outbreaks.
“If you are going to transfer to an atmosphere the place there are fewer restrictions, then you definitely want these three issues in place,” he mentioned at an earlier press convention.
Even so, easing the lockdown is not going to be thought-about for just a few extra weeks.
“Nationwide Cupboard agreed that we are going to use the subsequent 4 weeks to make sure that we will get these in place.”
Australia’s deputy chief medical officer Dr Nick Coatsworth defined that eliminating the virus was not a practical possibility.
He instructed the ABC on Wednesday that Australia was “in a pivotal second” of the battle towards the pandemic, however that we can’t turn out to be complacent.
He mentioned social restrictions might want to stay in place “for at the least one other three weeks to Could 11” however “easing restrictions would, by definition, imply a few of these numbers (of instances) may change”.
“Companies and people want to arrange, although, that bodily distance from each other might want to preserve going,” Dr Coatsworth mentioned.
“Nice hand hygiene and cough etiquette might want to preserve going, as a result of we received’t have a vaccine. So, whereas some restrictions could also be lifted, the way in which we behave has to remain the identical.”
He rejected the notion that Australia may “eradicate” the virus.
“I’m utilizing the phrase ‘suppression’,” Dr Coatsworth mentioned. “I’ll inform you why I’m doing that. The issue with utilizing phrases like ‘elimination’ and ‘eradication’ is that we’re a non-immune inhabitants.
“So, you must be so positive that you simply’ve acquired to that time that you’d want to increase your restrictions for therefore lengthy to get to that time, that I believe that that might result in Australians having to be below social restrictions for too lengthy to get there. That’s an sincere view.
“If, within the strategy of suppressing, we get to the purpose of eradication, then that might be a powerful consequence. However we should proceed to construct capability and we should proceed to comprise the virus, and keep in mind that we’re not immune from it. So, the phrase that — the technique that we’re utilizing — is to ‘suppress’ COVID-19 till there’s a vaccine.”